expodynamics
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JDP
ECON
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2217 Bruce Drive, Pottstown, Pa. 19464-1514; Phone: 610-323-2042;
Fax: 209-885-5409; Email: jdpecon@att.net
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NEW YORK WORLD EXPO
2012
ExpoDYNAMICS BASIC
FEASIBILITY STUDY -
SUMMARY INFORMATION
To PURCHASE the Full ExpoDynamics Basic report on the Proposed New York
World Expo 2012, BIE "Recognized" Expo, click here. |
For more information on the New York World Expo, and to sign the online
petition in support of the campaign, visit the official website, www.worldexpo2012.com,
or for more information on the mission statement, etc., view the personal
site of Jonathan
Bydlak and Benjamin Kingsley. |
TM Steve Chappell
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Report Purpose:
The purpose of this ExpoDynamics report is to provide
a background of information and probabilities on the attendance and other
aspects of the proposed New York World Expo 2012, an event suggested by
Jonathan Bydlak and Benjamin Kingsley, students at Princeton University,
and initially pushed and championed by those at Princeton University through
a grassroots campaign that now exceeds 700 people. The impetus for
this effort stems from citizens who feel that a world expo in New York
City is the right idea at an opportune time to champion the city and the
nation after the tragedies of September 11, 2001.
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Options Studied:
Two exposition options have been studied: that of holding
a Bureau of International Exhibitions sanctioned, "recognized" or small
scale event during their 2012 bid slot, or that of an unsanctioned "universal"
or large scale international exposition.
How Does the Above Compare to Past New York World's
Fairs?
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New York 1853-54 (Pre B.I.E.)
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New York World's Fair 1939-40 (B.I.E. General-Second
Category)
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New York World's Fair 1964-65 (Unsanctioned Universal)
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Exposition Site, Size and Scope Paramaters:
For purposes of this study, the New York World Expo 2012
will be constructed with the following parameters; in Column 1, using the
B.I.E "recognized" exposition limits, and in Column 2, that of an Unsanctioned
Universal Expo.
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B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012
Size & Scope (Site Size):
Although no site has been selected, for the purposes of this
study we are using a portion of the 1,257 acre Flushing Meadows-Coruna
Park site which has previously hosted the 1939-40 New York World's
Fair, as well as the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.
Site of 62 acres (25 hectares) for
the exposition itself within the Queens location. (Maximum limit
for a Bureau of International Exhibition "recognized" expo with the 2012
bid slot.)
Existing parking on site: 80 acres.
Anticipated 75 international participants.
Expo Type (Sanction):
Sanction sought from the Bureau of International Exhibitions
for a "recognized" small scale specialized expo in 2012.
Size & Scope (Funding):
Cost: $435,000,000 to the Expo Authority.
No government funding.
All funding, beyond individual exhibits, to be covered through
visitor revenues and corporate sponsorships.
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UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO
Size & Scope (Site Size): Although no site has
been selected, for the purposes of this study we are using a portion of
the 1,257 acre Flushing Meadows-Coruna Park site which has previously
hosted the 1939-40 New York World's Fair, as well as the 1964-1965 New
York World's Fair.
Site of 350 acres (142 hectares)
for
the exposition itself within the Queens
location. As an unsanctioned event, there is no limit on the amount
of acreage chosen.
Existing parking on site: 80 acres.
Anticipated 75 international participants.
Expo Type (Sanction):
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Universal style world exposition
that will not seek the sanction of the Bureau of International Exhibitions.
A universal expo is held on a broad theme with pavilions built by the participants
and the organizers.
Size & Scope (Funding):
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Cost: $929,000,000 to the Expo Authority.
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No government funding.
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All funding, beyond individual exhibits, to be covered through
visitor revenues and corporate sponsorships.
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Estimated Attendance Probabilities:
Using 3 of the attendance scenarios available through
ExpoDynamics, the estimates for both options provide a range of potential
attendance, with the Planning Estimate the most appropriate level to consider
for planning purposes, while holding out the Average Case Scenario, and
beyond, as potential attendance targets that may or may not be reached.
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B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012
Planning Estimate Scenario:
8,786,000 total visitors entries.
Average Case Scenario:
16,029,000 total visitor entries.
Comparative History Node (New York 1964):
16,624,000 total visitor entries.
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UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO
Planning Estimate Scenario:
21,818,000 total visitors entries.
Average Case Scenario:
40,663,000 total visitor entries.
Comparative History Node (New York 1964):
41,523,000 total visitor entries.
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Site & Other Projections:
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B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012
Exhibition Space:
Estimated Exhibition Space Planned (Median value) - 1,064,000
square feet.
Estimated Total Built Space; exhibits, concessions, etc.
(Median value) - 1,619,000 square feet.
Economic Impact (Preliminary):
Total Impact, Construction Phase - $1,366,000,000.
Total Impact, Operating Phase, including Indirect Impacts
- $649,000,000.
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UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO
Exhibition Space:
Estimated Exhibition Space Planned (Median value) - 1,541,000
square feet.
Estimated Total Built Space; exhibits, concessions, etc.
(Median value) - 2,440,000 square feet.
Economic Impact (Preliminary):
Total Impact, Construction Phase - $2,596,000,000.
Total Impact, Operating Phase, including Indirect Impacts
- $1,650,000,000.
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Source: JDP ECON, ExpoDynamics TM
Any questions about ExpoDynamics Reports,
please contact:
JDP ECON
2217 Bruce Drive, Pottstown,
Pa., U.S.A. 19464-1514
Phone: 610-323-2042
Fax: 209-885-5409
Email - jdpecon@att.net
(C)
Copyright 2002 by JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D.
Peterman) All worldwide rights reserved. No information or
intellectual property contained on this website, report, study, ExpoDynamics
TM or valuation model (World's Fair, Expo, Decision Model), nor any part
of this website, report, study or valuation model may be used, reproduced
or transmitted for commercial use in any form without express written consent
of JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D. Peterman), 2217
Bruce Drive, Pottstown, Pa., U.S.A. 19464-1514. Phone: 610-323-2042;
Fax 209-885-5409; Email - jdpecon@att.net.
First
Edition: May 2002. Printed/Digital Copy in the United States of America.
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The
study mentioned herewith and above utilizes the WFDM (World's Fair Decision
Model) or Expo Decision Model (EDM), a ten-year research project, in development
through J.D. Peterman Economic Services. It is understood and agreed
that this Independent Study, as well as the WFDM (World's Fair Decision
Model), Expo Decision Model and ExpoDynamics TM are the 2002 copyrighted
property, intellectual trade secret, trademarked and/or patent pending
property of JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D. Peterman).
All Worldwide Rights reserved.
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