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expodynamics
JDP ECON 
2217 Bruce Drive, Pottstown, Pa. 19464-1514; Phone: 610-323-2042; Fax: 209-885-5409; Email: jdpecon@att.net
TM
NEW YORK WORLD EXPO 2012
ExpoDYNAMICS BASIC

FEASIBILITY STUDY -
SUMMARY INFORMATION


  To PURCHASE the Full ExpoDynamics Basic report on the Proposed New York World Expo 2012, BIE "Recognized" Expo, click here.   For more information on the New York World Expo, and to sign the online petition in support of the campaign, visit the official website, www.worldexpo2012.com, or for more information on the mission statement, etc., view the personal site of  Jonathan Bydlak and Benjamin Kingsley.


 
  
TM Steve Chappell
 
Report Purpose:

The purpose of this ExpoDynamics report is to provide a background of information and probabilities on the attendance and other aspects of the proposed New York World Expo 2012, an event suggested by Jonathan Bydlak and Benjamin Kingsley, students at Princeton University, and initially pushed and championed by those at Princeton University through a grassroots campaign that now exceeds 700 people.  The impetus for this effort stems from citizens who feel that a world expo in New York City is the right idea at an opportune time to champion the city and the nation after the tragedies of September 11, 2001.

Options Studied:

Two exposition options have been studied: that of holding a Bureau of International Exhibitions sanctioned, "recognized" or small scale event during their 2012 bid slot, or that of an unsanctioned "universal" or large scale international exposition.

How Does the Above Compare to Past New York World's Fairs?

  • New York 1853-54 (Pre B.I.E.)
  • New York World's Fair 1939-40  (B.I.E. General-Second Category)
  • New York World's Fair 1964-65 (Unsanctioned Universal)
 
Exposition Site, Size and Scope Paramaters:

For purposes of this study, the New York World Expo 2012 will be constructed with the following parameters; in Column 1, using the B.I.E "recognized" exposition limits, and in Column 2, that of an Unsanctioned Universal Expo.

     

B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012

Size & Scope (Site Size): 

  • Although no site has been selected, for the purposes of this study we are using a portion of the 1,257 acre Flushing Meadows-Coruna Park site which has  previously hosted the 1939-40 New York World's Fair, as well as the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.
  • Site of 62 acres (25 hectares) for the exposition itself within the Queens location.  (Maximum limit for a Bureau of International Exhibition "recognized" expo with the 2012 bid slot.)
  • Existing parking on site: 80 acres.
  • Anticipated 75 international participants.

  • Expo Type (Sanction):

  • Sanction sought from the Bureau of International Exhibitions for a "recognized" small scale specialized expo in 2012.

  • Size & Scope (Funding): 

  • Cost: $435,000,000 to the Expo Authority.
  • No government funding.
  • All funding, beyond individual exhibits, to be covered through visitor revenues and corporate sponsorships.
  •  
     
    UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO
  • Size & Scope (Site Size): Although no site has been selected, for the purposes of this study we are using a portion of the 1,257 acre Flushing Meadows-Coruna Park site which has  previously hosted the 1939-40 New York World's Fair, as well as the 1964-1965 New York World's Fair.
  • Site of 350 acres (142 hectares) for the exposition itself within the Queens       location.  As an unsanctioned event, there is no limit on the amount of acreage chosen.
  • Existing parking on site: 80 acres.
  • Anticipated 75 international participants.
    •  
      Expo Type (Sanction):
    • Universal style world exposition      that will not seek the sanction of the Bureau of International Exhibitions.  A universal expo is held on a broad theme with pavilions built by the participants and the organizers.

    • Size & Scope (Funding): 

    • Cost: $929,000,000 to the Expo Authority.
    • No government funding.
    • All funding, beyond individual exhibits, to be covered through   visitor revenues and corporate sponsorships.
     
    Estimated Attendance Probabilities:

    Using 3 of the attendance scenarios available through ExpoDynamics, the estimates for both options provide a range of potential attendance, with the Planning Estimate the most appropriate level to consider for planning purposes, while holding out the Average Case Scenario, and beyond, as potential attendance targets that may or may not be reached.

     
     
    B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012

    Planning Estimate Scenario:
    8,786,000 total visitors entries.

    Average Case Scenario:
    16,029,000 total visitor entries.

    Comparative History Node (New York 1964):
    16,624,000 total visitor entries.

     
    UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO

    Planning Estimate Scenario:
    21,818,000 total visitors entries.

    Average Case Scenario:
    40,663,000 total visitor entries.

    Comparative History Node (New York 1964):
    41,523,000 total visitor entries.

     
    Site & Other Projections:
     
    B.I.E. "RECOGNIZED" EXPO 2012

    Exhibition Space:

  • Estimated Exhibition Space Planned (Median value) - 1,064,000 square feet.
  • Estimated Total Built Space; exhibits, concessions, etc. (Median value) - 1,619,000 square feet.

  •  

     

    Economic Impact (Preliminary):

  • Total Impact, Construction Phase - $1,366,000,000.

  • Total Impact, Operating Phase, including Indirect Impacts - $649,000,000.
     
    UNSANCTIONED UNIVERSAL EXPO
    Exhibition Space:
  • Estimated Exhibition Space Planned (Median value) - 1,541,000 square feet.
  • Estimated Total Built Space; exhibits, concessions, etc. (Median value) - 2,440,000 square feet.

  •  

     

    Economic Impact (Preliminary):

  • Total Impact, Construction Phase - $2,596,000,000.
  • Total Impact, Operating Phase, including Indirect Impacts - $1,650,000,000.
  • Source: JDP ECON, ExpoDynamics TM



    Any questions about ExpoDynamics Reports, please contact:

    JDP ECON
    2217 Bruce Drive, Pottstown, Pa., U.S.A. 19464-1514
    Phone: 610-323-2042
    Fax: 209-885-5409
    Email - jdpecon@att.net


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    (C) Copyright 2002 by JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D. Peterman)  All worldwide rights reserved.  No information or intellectual property contained on this website, report, study, ExpoDynamics TM or valuation model (World's Fair, Expo, Decision Model), nor any part of this website, report, study or valuation model may be used, reproduced or transmitted for commercial use in any form without express written consent of JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D. Peterman), 2217 Bruce Drive, Pottstown, Pa., U.S.A. 19464-1514.  Phone: 610-323-2042; Fax 209-885-5409; Email - jdpecon@att.net.

    First Edition: May 2002.  Printed/Digital Copy in the United States of America.

    ------------------------------------------------

    The study mentioned herewith and above utilizes the WFDM (World's Fair Decision Model) or Expo Decision Model (EDM), a ten-year research project, in development through J.D. Peterman Economic Services.  It is understood and agreed that this Independent Study, as well as the WFDM (World's Fair Decision Model), Expo Decision Model and ExpoDynamics TM are the 2002 copyrighted property, intellectual trade secret, trademarked and/or patent pending property of JDP ECON (J.D. Peterman Economic Services/Jeffrey D. Peterman).  All Worldwide Rights reserved.